【分析】万斯与特朗普割席 未来两年只可像幽灵般在白宫游荡

资料传媒人兼学者Sarah Baxter在《The i Paper》以题为“愤世嫉俗的万斯已彻底失去了所有人的尊重  他对特朗普的攻击彻底断送了他的前程”(Cynical Vance has lost all respect.  His attack on Trump just sealed his fate)，评论美国副总统万斯在中期选举翌日，共和党大败后的发言。

文章说，对于许多在美国中期选举隔天清晨醒来的人来说，选举结果令人震惊，预示著华盛顿政治新时代的到来。而对特朗普的白宫来说，这个结果也意味着他们必须迅速思考自身的未来。

副总统万斯审视著自己政治抱负的残骸，甚至不到一天，就将“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动惨败的责任归咎于他的老板。

在周三发布的一篇600字的关于X的评论文章中，他向特朗普表明，他显然更重视自己的政治前途，而不是总统的安危。他也让全世界都知道，特朗普已经被叛变的选民——以及他自己的副总统——拖垮了。

在民主党横扫共和党席位并掌控国会之后，万斯提出了共和党复兴的四条途径：1）结束伊朗战争。2）关注生活成本/通货膨胀。3）美国优先。4）改变我们与以色列的关系。

副总统万斯审视著自己政治抱负的残骸，甚至不到一天，就将“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动惨败的责任归咎于他的老板。

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.” Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

文章说，如今万斯本人已是跛脚鸭中的跛脚鸭，远比他的主子特朗普更甚。他在社群媒体上的贴文赤裸裸地试图抢在特朗普任何政策转变之前，但他不会因此获得任何赞誉，而且他的影响力正在萎缩。

总统本人仍然拥有广泛的行政权力，从否决国会法案到执行外交政策，无所不能。同时，副总统们却没有独立的意志──但他们也不能被解雇。除非万斯辞职，否则在接下来的两年里，他将像幽灵一样在白宫游荡，被那些曾经认为他是共和党乃至美国未来希望的人所抛弃。

这些人中就包括特朗普本人，他周三冷酷地说：“也许他（万斯）不会参选。”特朗普从来都不是一个会原谅哪怕最轻微的不忠行为的人，尽管在惨败的打击下，他勉强同意了万斯的观点，即伊朗战争至少在一定程度上导致了共和党的惨败。

在白宫宴会厅施工现场举行的新闻发布会上，总统坚称：“就那场战争而言，我不会改变我的决定。”他也感慨道，MAGA运动对他的爱戴是无法转移的。 “那些集会充满了爱，”他自吹自擂道，“真是不可思议。我们没能把这份爱转移到候选人身上。”同样的情况可能也适用于万斯，他从未赢得选民同样的拥戴。

对于那些年复一年，月复一月，人们对万斯的尊重已荡然无存。 2016年，他的回忆录《乡下人的挽歌》大获成功，但随后他态度大转弯，转而支持特朗普，这令中间派人士也对他反感不已。他对移民的敌意——例如指责海地人吃掉家养宠物——似乎是对他自身混血家庭的背叛。

民主党人谢布朗（Sherrod Brown）夺回了万斯在俄亥俄州的参议员席位。尽管万斯这位耶鲁大学法学院毕业生才智过人，但在政治上却遭遇了重重阻碍。如果共和党连他的家乡都无法取胜，那么他的政治生涯也就走到了尽头。当然，最不可能意识到这一点的人就是万斯本人。

如果我们仔细研究他在X论坛上的帖子，就会发现他认为自己通往2028年总统宝座的道路究竟在哪里。他打算争取马斯克和像他长期盟友彼得蒂尔这样的自由主义科技人士的支持，以推行一种欺凌式的、种族优越主义的“美国优先”政策（从而背叛乌克兰和欧洲）。他提出的改变美国与以色列关系的计划表明，他也希望借助像 Tucker Carlson这样的网路评论人的影响力。

但这些“意见领袖”的影响力也逐渐减弱。马斯克在中期选举中投入了高达5亿美元，却一无所获。其中一半花在了德州，民主党参议员候选人在那里获胜，并指责这位特斯拉亿万富翁试图收买选票，将他塑造成了一个反派角色。Tucker Carlson邀请白人至上主义者Nick Fuentes 上他的节目后，疏远了一大批共和党人。

就竞争对手而言，万斯的政策主张旨在与国务卿卢比奥之间划清界线。先前关于万斯担任总统、卢比奥担任副总统的“梦幻组合”的设想已然破灭。卢比奥也没有理由再沉迷于这种幻想。

一夜之间，随着中期选举结果陆续公布，霍新闻的主持人已经开始宣布万斯败局已定，并开始宣传卢比奥的竞选。作为一名前外交政策鹰派，卢比奥从未认同过“美国优先”的孤立主义。

另一位共和党人也在伺机而动。他是即将卸任的佛罗里达州州长桑蒂斯(DeSantis )，在2024年共和党总统候选人初选中挑战特朗普。鲁比奥和德桑蒂斯都来自佛罗里达州，佛罗里达州是今次少数几个在民主党猛攻下幸存下来的共和党州之一。

特普给德桑蒂斯取了个绰号叫“伪善的罗恩”（Ron DeSanctimonious）。鉴于美国选民对政治腐败的普遍厌恶，这如今几乎成了他竞选的宣传。

德桑蒂斯称中期选举结果“对共和党在全国许多地区来说几乎是灭顶之灾”——这是他把自己塑造成能够重振共和党的合适人选的第一步。与这两位相比，万斯恐怕会沦为笑柄，身居要职却无实权。

嘲讽之声已经开始了。在密西根州，美国首位当选的穆斯林参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德(Abdul El-Sayed)忍不住用阿拉伯语的爱称“JD”来嘲讽他：“亲爱的，你明明有义务在1月份为我主持就职宣誓，这真是莫大的讽刺。”

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